Fourth has analysed anonymised trading data from over 5,600 customer locations to reveal how this summer’s World Cup is reshaping consumer behaviour across the sector.
While England’s opening World Cup fixtures generated a 20% uplift in hospitality sales, Fourth’s analysis shows the bigger story is not how much people spend, but when and where they spend it. With England fixtures taking place at 9pm, 10pm and beyond, many operators have had little historical reference data to accurately forecast customer behaviour.
“Every major sporting event creates opportunities for hospitality, but this World Cup is different because operators are navigating trading patterns they’ve never experienced before,” said Ali Fraser, SVP & GM EMEA at Fourth.
“Our analysis shows that unprecedented kick-off times are reshaping customer behaviour across every hospitality segment. Pubs are seeing dramatic demand before and during matches, casual dining is capturing earlier dinner occasions before kick-off, and QSR benefits from both pre-match and post-match demand. Understanding these shifting patterns allows operators to make better decisions around staffing, stock and service, particularly as we move into the knockout rounds where these trends are likely to become even more pronounced.”
Pubs emerge as the tournament’s biggest winners
The analysis shows pubs are benefiting most from football-driven demand, with sales increasing by around 60% during England fixtures compared with equivalent trading periods.
The three hours before kick-off and during the game generates the strongest demand, as supporters gather to watch matches together. Once the game begins, spending shifts almost entirely towards drinks, with pub drink sales increasing by more than 300% during the match itself.
The traditional food-to-drink balance changes significantly, moving from around 60% drinks / 40% food on a typical trading day to approximately 75% drinks / 25% food during England fixtures, highlighting the importance of ensuring sufficient stock and bar staffing.
Casual dining success depends on fixture timing
Evening kick-offs (9pm) encourage customers to bring dinner plans forward, creating strong trading throughout the afternoon and early evening before demand falls sharply as supporters head home or to pubs. By contrast, later 10pm fixtures allow restaurants to complete much of their normal dinner service before football begins to influence customer behaviour.
Heatwave conditions further shifted demand into the afternoon, creating additional lunchtime and early evening trade.
QSR benefits before and after the match
Quick service restaurants followed a different pattern to pubs and casual dining, with demand peaking both before and after matches.
Sales built steadily in the lead-up to kick-off as customers grabbed a quick meal before watching the game, before dropping away during the match itself. Around 30 to 60 minutes after full time, demand surged again as supporters headed home, with late-night sales increasing by more than 120% during weekday fixtures.
The findings are already beginning to appear in hospitality trading updates. Young’s this week reported total revenue growth of 9.4% during the first 14 weeks of its financial year, with the pub operator crediting England’s World Cup campaign, extended opening hours, favourable weather and Wimbledon for helping drive strong trading.
Simon Dodd, CEO of Young’s, commented:
“Our premium, well-invested and differentiated pubs and bedrooms continue to deliver, with Young’s pubs performing strongly in the first quarter. This was supported by favourable weather, a busy summer of sport, with England’s success in the World Cup so far a welcome boost.”
